The Science of Decision-Making
How the mind actually decides, and where it reliably goes wrong. A route through fast and slow thinking, the common biases, and what better decisions require.
10 steps · roughly 30 minutes to read · Reviewed by Shariq Refai, MD, MBA
Dual Process Theory
Thinking happens in two speeds, and knowing which one is driving helps you trust it or double check it.
Heuristics
Shortcuts make judgment fast and usually good enough, but they leave a trail of predictable errors.
Anchoring Bias
The first number, idea, or impression often influences everything that follows.
Availability Heuristic
The easiest memory isn't always the best estimate.
Base Rate Neglect
Probability matters before symptoms are interpreted.
Bayesian Thinking
Evidence changes confidence.
Loss Aversion
The brain weighs losses more heavily than gains.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Past costs shouldn't determine future decisions.
Decision Quality
Good processes produce better decisions over time.
Decision Confidence
Confidence comes from your process, not your predictions.