The Shrink Calibration Loop
A Shrink Framework, a model that ties these 13 concepts into one way of understanding a problem. Each concept links to its full page in the Atlas.
Cognitive Calibration
Wisdom grows through continual recalibration.
Cognitive Humility
Humility protects learning.
Prediction Error
Unexpected outcomes drive learning.
Adaptive Thinking
Adaptation is intelligence expressed through action.
Mental Forecasting
Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees.
Affective Forecasting
People are often less emotionally predictable than they imagine.
Belief Perseverance
Beliefs often outlive their evidence.
Availability Heuristic
The easiest memory isn't always the best estimate.
Anchoring Bias
The first number, idea, or impression often influences everything that follows.
Optimism Bias
Hope is valuable. Accuracy is essential.
Cognitive Entrenchment
Experience should expand thinking, not imprison it.
Premature Diagnostic Closure
Premature diagnostic closure is stopping the diagnostic search too soon. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Search Satisficing
Finding one explanation can make us stop searching for better ones.