Decision Science
24 evidence-labeled concepts on Decision Science, drawn from the Shrink Atlas. Each concept is a short lesson: what it is, why it matters, how to work with it. Explore the list, or start with the one that fits your question today.
Base Rate Neglect
Probability matters before symptoms are interpreted.
Calibration
Confidence should reflect reality.
Choice Architecture
Context shapes decisions.
Cognitive Autopsy
Review your thinking, not just your results.
Cognitive Forcing Strategy
A cognitive forcing strategy intentionally interrupts automatic reasoning.
Decision Quality
Good processes produce better decisions over time.
Expected Value
Probability matters as much as possibility.
Exploration-Exploitation Tradeoff
Wise decision making balances learning with using what has already been learned.
Framing Effect
The frame around the facts often moves us more than the facts themselves.
Framing of Gains and Losses
Call it a loss and we gamble, call it a gain and we play safe, with the numbers held constant.
Gambler's Fallacy
A coin has no memory, but we keep insisting the next flip owes us.
Heuristics
Shortcuts make judgment fast and usually good enough, but they leave a trail of predictable errors.
Hyperbolic Discounting
Waiting feels cheap when it's far off and unbearable when it's near, so we reverse ourselves.
Incentives
Behavior responds to incentives.
Mental Accounting
A dollar is a dollar, but the mental label we give it changes how we spend it.
Opportunity Cost
Choosing always means giving something up.
Planning Fallacy
Plans imagine the best case, so they tend to run long and cost more.
Present Bias
The present shouts while the future whispers, so now usually wins.
Regret Minimization
Future perspective improves present decisions.
Representativeness Heuristic
Similarity isn't the same as probability.
Risk Calibration
Accurate risk leads to better decisions.
Second-Order Thinking
The best decisions account for future consequences, not only immediate results.
Tradeoff Thinking
Every gain has a cost.
Utility
Value is personal.
How this library is organized
Every concept in Decision Science lives in one of six realms of the Shrink Atlas and carries an honest evidence label. This page is a navigation aid; the concept pages are where the lessons are. Follow one, or come back tomorrow for the daily concept.
See the whole Atlas · See the frameworks that use these concepts · See guided pathways